by Commish Jeff 
Stat profile: Eagles are scoring 31.41 PPG (#1) and allowing 17.71 PPG (#3). Saquon Barkley is the league’s TD king (24 rushing scores), and the Eagles’ run game finishes drives. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +25, and the red zone is 42.86% on offense vs 46.88% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 13: lost to 49ers 31-17; Week 14: beat Vikings 41-17.
Stat profile: Saints are scoring 27.53 PPG (#7) and allowing 21.82 PPG (#12). Danny Stutsman is all over the defensive leaderboards (tackles + INTs), and NO keeps finding ways late. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +10, and the red zone is 50.53% on offense vs 54.74% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 13: beat Colts 29-28; Week 14: beat Panthers 45-44.
Stat profile: Chiefs are scoring 29.47 PPG (#4) and allowing 20.76 PPG (#10). Mahomes is right there in the TD race (43) and KC’s passing game can erase deficits instantly. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at -4, and the red zone is 45.92% on offense vs 54.32% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Jaguars 41-28; Week 13: beat Bills 28-21.
Stat profile: 49ers are scoring 25.14 PPG (#12) and allowing 17.79 PPG (#4). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (277.0 pass / 62.5 rush per game) and have allowed 28 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +5, and the red zone is 46.46% on offense vs 45.45% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Steelers 23-18; Week 13: beat Eagles 31-17.
Stat profile: Bills are scoring 26.76 PPG (#9) and allowing 22.06 PPG (#13). Josh Allen is sitting atop the passing yards board (4,208) and the Bills can score with anyone when he’s cooking. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at +3, and the red zone is 44.44% on offense vs 49.07% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Commanders 42-39; Week 13: lost to Chiefs 28-21.
Stat profile: Chargers are scoring 24.82 PPG (#13) and allowing 18.47 PPG (#5). Ladd McConkey sits top-5 in receiving TDs (14), and the pass rush is elite (Tuli + Jayden Ryan with 11 each). Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -10, and the red zone is 46.15% on offense vs 43.90% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Vikings 49-10; Week 13: lost to Bears 38-24.
Stat profile: Seahawks are scoring 25.47 PPG (#11) and allowing 22.71 PPG (#14). Jalen Milroe leads the league in passing TDs (46), and Seattle has two top-5 TD receivers (Brackett/Arroyo). Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +17, and the red zone is 50.55% on offense vs 57.78% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Cardinals 34-26; Week 13: beat Steelers 21-17.
Stat profile: Browns are scoring 24.24 PPG (#14) and allowing 20.24 PPG (#8). Myles Garrett leads the league in sacks (16.5) and the Browns keep winning the close ones. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +9, and the red zone is 47.12% on offense vs 46.67% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Ravens 27-24; Week 13: beat Lions 34-33.
Stat profile: Steelers are scoring 27.82 PPG (#6) and allowing 26.29 PPG (#23). Roger Jarrett is #2 in passing yards (4,042) and DK Metcalf is a TD machine (19) — this offense is loud. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at +1, and the red zone is 44.33% on offense vs 40.00% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat 49ers 23-18; Week 13: lost to Seahawks 21-17.
Stat profile: Cardinals are scoring 28.35 PPG (#5) and allowing 22.53 PPG (#15). Jack Webber is top-5 in both passing yards (3,893) and passing TDs (39), plus MHJ is a top-5 yardage threat. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at -3, and the red zone is 50.55% on offense vs 46.43% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Seahawks 34-26; Week 15: beat Vikings 32-30.
Stat profile: Commanders are scoring 30.24 PPG (#3) and allowing 27.76 PPG (#26). Chad Price is #2 in rushing yards (1,929) and tied for #2 in rushing TDs (21) — the run game is real. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -5, and the red zone is 49.49% on offense vs 49.48% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Bills 42-39; Week 13: lost to Jets 48-45.
12. 
Baltimore Ravens
Stat profile: Ravens are scoring 25.54 PPG (#10) and allowing 20.15 PPG (#7). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (270.2 pass / 89.2 rush per game) and have allowed 28 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -6, and the red zone is 44.74% on offense vs 47.22% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Browns 27-24; Week 13: beat Jaguars 27-24.
13. 
Detroit Lions
Stat profile: Lions are scoring 28.65 PPG (#2) and allowing 18.76 PPG (#6). Jahmyr Gibbs leads MOF in rushing yards (2,061) and is tied near the top in rushing TDs (21). Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +6, and the red zone is 46.15% on offense vs 46.67% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 13: lost to Browns 34-33; Week 14: lost to Seahawks 36-35.
Stat profile: Jaguars are scoring 22.82 PPG (#17) and allowing 20.12 PPG (#6). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (272.0 pass / 105.8 rush per game) and have allowed 36 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at -2, and the red zone is 45.74% on offense vs 49.44% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Chiefs 41-28; Week 13: lost to Ravens 27-24.
15. 
Miami Dolphins
Stat profile: Dolphins are scoring 22.47 PPG (#20) and allowing 26.76 PPG (#24). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (254.0 pass / 107.1 rush per game) and have allowed 24 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at +1, and the red zone is 42.86% on offense vs 54.02% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 46.00% on 3rd down (69-150) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
16. 
New York Jets
Stat profile: Jets are scoring 23.18 PPG (#16) and allowing 24.41 PPG (#20). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (224.9 pass / 169.1 rush per game) and have allowed 33 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -7, and the red zone is 45.45% on offense vs 58.82% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 13: beat Commanders 48-45.
Stat profile: Colts are scoring 22.76 PPG (#18) and allowing 19.47 PPG (#7). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (260.9 pass / 86.9 rush per game) and have allowed 19 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -7, and the red zone is 46.15% on offense vs 42.50% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Rams 23-13; Week 13: lost to Saints 29-28.
18. 
Denver Broncos
Stat profile: Broncos are scoring 21.53 PPG (#23) and allowing 16.12 PPG (#1). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (179.8 pass / 123.1 rush per game) and have allowed 19 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at +2, and the red zone is 40.82% on offense vs 38.10% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 47.86% on 3rd down (67-140) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
Stat profile: Vikings are scoring 23.94 PPG (#15) and allowing 28.18 PPG (#28). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (279.6 pass / 99.4 rush per game) and have allowed 36 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -9, and the red zone is 47.92% on offense vs 56.41% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: lost to Chargers 49-10; Week 14: lost to Eagles 41-17.
Stat profile: Buccaneers are scoring 22.12 PPG (#21) and allowing 25.47 PPG (#22). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (216.8 pass / 117.9 rush per game) and have allowed 28 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -11, and the red zone is 41.76% on offense vs 55.81% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 42.71% on 3rd down (70-164) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
Stat profile: Patriots are scoring 22.06 PPG (#22) and allowing 20.35 PPG (#9). Drake Maye is top-5 in passing TDs (38), so the ceiling is there even if the record is shaky. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +7, and the red zone is 42.86% on offense vs 50.85% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 47.20% on 3rd down (76-161) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
Stat profile: Packers are scoring 21.24 PPG (#24) and allowing 20.35 PPG (#9). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (260.4 pass / 107.2 rush per game) and have allowed 29 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -5, and the red zone is 47.06% on offense vs 54.35% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 41.33% on 3rd down (62-150) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
23. 
Tennessee Titans
Stat profile: Titans are scoring 20.29 PPG (#26) and allowing 25.35 PPG (#21). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (185.3 pass / 135.5 rush per game) and have allowed 31 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -5, and the red zone is 43.96% on offense vs 57.14% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 40.40% on 3rd down (61-151) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
24. 
Atlanta Falcons
Stat profile: Falcons are scoring 20.71 PPG (#25) and allowing 28.47 PPG (#29). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (253.7 pass / 98.3 rush per game) and have allowed 33 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -7, and the red zone is 46.15% on offense vs 57.14% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 15: lost to Panthers 31-17.
Stat profile: Raiders are scoring 21.24 PPG (#24) and allowing 22.18 PPG (#13). Jalin Walker is top-5 in tackles (52) — the defense is on the field a lot, but the effort’s there. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +7, and the red zone is 46.15% on offense vs 58.33% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 34.56% on 3rd down (47-136) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
26. 
Los Angeles Rams
Stat profile: Rams are scoring 18.06 PPG (#30) and allowing 25.06 PPG (#20). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (250.1 pass / 72.9 rush per game) and have allowed 28 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is about even at +2, and the red zone is 44.44% on offense vs 51.02% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 12: beat Colts 23-13.
27. 
Houston Texans
Stat profile: Texans are scoring 19.82 PPG (#27) and allowing 27.35 PPG (#25). Chamarri Conner is tied near the top in INTs (8) — the defense can steal possessions. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a weapon at +5, and the red zone is 49.40% on offense vs 46.51% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 14: beat Colts 38-24; Week 15: lost to Saints 33-31.
Stat profile: Panthers are scoring 22.53 PPG (#19) and allowing 31.24 PPG (#31). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (235.0 pass / 153.9 rush per game) and have allowed 31 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -8, and the red zone is 45.12% on offense vs 55.00% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 14: lost to Saints 45-44; Week 15: beat Falcons 31-17.
29. 
Dallas Cowboys
Stat profile: Cowboys are scoring 19.41 PPG (#28) and allowing 29.88 PPG (#30). Identity check: they’re a pass-first team by volume (231.7 pass / 82.9 rush per game) and have allowed 41 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -13, and the red zone is 46.67% on offense vs 48.39% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 46.45% on 3rd down (72-155) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
Stat profile: Bengals are scoring 25.65 PPG (#8) and allowing 31.41 PPG (#32). Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in receiving yards (1,551), but the offense has to survive the turnover bug. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -17, and the red zone is 41.86% on offense vs 56.14% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 45.45% on 3rd down (75-165) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
31. 
Chicago Bears
Stat profile: Bears are scoring 18.41 PPG (#29) and allowing 26.35 PPG (#23). Identity check: they’re a run-first team by volume (161.2 pass / 137.2 rush per game) and have allowed 25 sacks. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -9, and the red zone is 38.78% on offense vs 56.52% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: Week 13: beat Chargers 38-24.
32. 
New York Giants
Stat profile: Giants are scoring 16.65 PPG (#32) and allowing 27.18 PPG (#24). Jaxson Dart is top-5 in passing yards (3,969), and Nabers is top-5 in receiving yards (1,390) — big plays are happening. Clean football matters here — turnover margin is a concern at -11, and the red zone is 43.75% on offense vs 55.70% allowed on defense. Recent spotlight: 38.74% on 3rd down (55-142) — that efficiency will decide their ceiling.
Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals
Washington Commanders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Las Vegas Raiders
Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals